Recent satellite imagery analysis indicates that Iran is engaged in substantial new construction at two of its key missile bases and is repairing facilities damaged by previous US and Israeli airstrikes. The findings suggest a strategic effort to bolster and protect its military infrastructure.
Construction Activity at Key Bases
Analysts at the British intelligence firm MAIAR, who examined the images, told BBC Verify that evidence of digging and new buildings is visible at the Garmdareh military base near Tehran and the Shahroud base in northern Iran. The imagery, taken in November, shows significant excavation and construction work.
At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, show signs of repairs. New roofs have been constructed on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the Iraqi border. At the Parchin military complex east of the capital, damaged buildings and debris have been cleared, despite repeated airstrikes.
Underground Facilities for Protection
Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst focused on Iran, suggested that the excavations near Shahroud could be related to missile production. He noted that because the nearby air base has been targeted multiple times, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is likely seeking to move production facilities underground.
A MAIAR analyst observed that Iran has "a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes." Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, added that underground facilities also make it "harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status."
Repairs and New Construction
At multiple bases, Iranian forces have focused on small-scale repairs to heavily damaged complexes. Satellite images show that significant construction has been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility within the Parchin complex, with damaged buildings levelled and an underground bunker repaired and reinforced with concrete.
At Karaj and Shahroud, the images reveal substantial excavation. At Karaj, multiple vehicles were visible, and improvements appear to have been made to the nearby airbase. Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), said the images from Karaj show "a new portal for an underground facility."
Not a Deception Effort
Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes, said the construction work is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, as such a project "would be costly and may achieve little."
Context of Threats and Claims
The developments come amid speculation that the US could resume attacks on Iran. Vice-President JD Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters for the Republicans' poor performance in recent polls. Meanwhile, the White House has repeatedly asserted that US-Israeli attacks have depleted Iran's armed forces, with a Pentagon spokesperson claiming the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base."
However, Iran claims it retains large stockpiles of missiles, and state TV footage this week purported to show dozens of missiles at an underground facility in southern Iran. In August, similar footage showed Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near Bandar Abbas.
A MAIAR analyst also identified new construction near tunnel entrances close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has been bombed multiple times by both the US and Israel.
Bracing for Further Attacks
Mark Cancian, a military analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the activity indicates Tehran is preparing for further attacks. "The purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks," he said. "It also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy."
